Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,007
2 Rhode Island 143,012
3 South Dakota 140,193
4 Utah 126,289
5 Tennessee 124,010
6 Arizona 120,581
7 Iowa 117,548
8 Wisconsin 115,627
9 Nebraska 115,345
10 South Carolina 114,887
11 Oklahoma 114,324
12 New Jersey 114,226
13 Arkansas 112,835
14 Delaware 111,329
15 Alabama 110,655
16 Indiana 110,571
17 Illinois 108,997
18 Kansas 108,226
19 Florida 107,730
20 New York 107,714
21 Idaho 107,224
22 Mississippi 106,483
23 Minnesota 106,313
24 Nevada 104,871
25 Montana 104,305
26 Wyoming 103,445
27 Georgia 103,258
28 Kentucky 102,667
29 Massachusetts 102,371
30 Texas 101,642
31 Louisiana 100,982
32 Missouri 99,846
33 Michigan 98,915
34 Connecticut 97,297
35 New Mexico 96,529
36 California 95,662
37 North Carolina 95,283
38 Alaska 94,971
39 Colorado 94,163
40 Ohio 93,984
41 Pennsylvania 93,904
42 West Virginia 89,605
43 Virginia 78,935
44 Maryland 75,900
45 New Hampshire 72,388
46 District of Columbia 69,150
47 Washington 56,792
48 Puerto Rico 53,761
49 Maine 49,941
50 Oregon 47,278
51 Vermont 38,680
52 Hawaii 24,513

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 West Virginia 158
2 Colorado 136
3 Washington 129
4 Wyoming 120
5 Louisiana 116
6 Pennsylvania 105
7 Idaho 89
8 North Carolina 89
9 Florida 86
10 New Mexico 85
11 Oregon 83
12 Michigan 80
13 Rhode Island 76
14 Nevada 72
15 Illinois 71
16 Mississippi 71
17 Indiana 70
18 Kentucky 69
19 Texas 68
20 Minnesota 67
21 Alaska 66
22 Maine 66
23 Montana 66
24 Tennessee 61
25 North Dakota 59
26 Arizona 58
27 Utah 58
28 Ohio 56
29 South Carolina 56
30 Connecticut 53
31 Missouri 53
32 Arkansas 52
33 New York 51
34 Puerto Rico 49
35 Oklahoma 46
36 New Hampshire 45
37 Delaware 44
38 Alabama 43
39 Wisconsin 43
40 South Dakota 42
41 Georgia 41
42 Nebraska 41
43 Massachusetts 38
44 Iowa 37
45 Virginia 37
46 District of Columbia 35
47 Maryland 34
48 New Jersey 29
49 California 28
50 Kansas 28
51 Vermont 27
52 Hawaii 23

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,939
2 New York 2,705
3 Massachusetts 2,587
4 Rhode Island 2,555
5 Mississippi 2,452
6 Arizona 2,413
7 Connecticut 2,305
8 Alabama 2,268
9 Louisiana 2,268
10 South Dakota 2,265
11 Pennsylvania 2,119
12 New Mexico 2,028
13 Michigan 2,023
14 North Dakota 2,016
15 Indiana 2,015
16 Illinois 1,975
17 Arkansas 1,929
18 Iowa 1,914
19 Georgia 1,888
20 South Carolina 1,884
21 Nevada 1,806
22 Tennessee 1,801
23 Texas 1,774
24 Kansas 1,748
25 Oklahoma 1,748
26 Delaware 1,703
27 Florida 1,703
28 Ohio 1,689
29 District of Columbia 1,601
30 California 1,593
31 Missouri 1,567
32 West Virginia 1,552
33 Kentucky 1,541
34 Montana 1,502
35 Maryland 1,493
36 Wisconsin 1,332
37 Minnesota 1,325
38 Virginia 1,304
39 North Carolina 1,242
40 Wyoming 1,242
41 Nebraska 1,228
42 Idaho 1,168
43 Colorado 1,157
44 New Hampshire 988
45 Puerto Rico 776
46 Washington 757
47 Utah 714
48 Oregon 629
49 Maine 612
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 348

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Mexico 19
2 Wyoming 3
3 District of Columbia 2
4 Maryland 2
5 Michigan 2
6 Mississippi 2
7 Missouri 2
8 South Carolina 2
9 Arizona 1
10 Colorado 1
11 Florida 1
12 Georgia 1
13 Idaho 1
14 Illinois 1
15 Kentucky 1
16 Louisiana 1
17 Maine 1
18 Minnesota 1
19 Nevada 1
20 New Jersey 1
21 New York 1
22 North Carolina 1
23 Ohio 1
24 Pennsylvania 1
25 South Dakota 1
26 Virginia 1
27 West Virginia 1
28 Alabama 0
29 Alaska 0
30 Arkansas 0
31 California 0
32 Connecticut 0
33 Delaware 0
34 Hawaii 0
35 Indiana 0
36 Iowa 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Massachusetts 0
39 Montana 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 North Dakota 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 385,074 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,471 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,134 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,161 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,875 190 93
Richland South Carolina 113,193 980 68
York South Carolina 112,855 995 68
Orange California 85,564 2250 28
Pierce Washington 59,579 2846 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Hancock Georgia 7,922 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,592 1834 41
York South Carolina 1,370 2092 33
Richland South Carolina 1,369 2093 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,366 2097 33
Pierce Washington 755 2739 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons